Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA)

CAPRA is an open source platform for risk analysis, which applies probabilistic techniques to hazard and loss assessment. The platform was designed from the start to be modular and extensible. Hazard information is combined with exposure and physical vulnerability data, allowing the user to determine conjoint or cascade risk on an inter-related multi-hazard basis, distinguishing the platform from previous single hazard analyses. The CAPRA suite of software includes hazard mapping, risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis tools to support pro-active risk management. CAPRA can also be used to design risk-financing strategies.

Hazard Modules

The hazard modules include a set of software tools to model hazard frequency and intensity for earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclone, floods, landslides and volcanic hazards.

Exposure Module

The exposure module uses information to depict the inventory of assets, including tools for the localization, classification, qualification and valuation of infrastructure potentially exposed to the hazard being considered.

Physical Vulnerability Module

The vulnerability module includes software tools for the development of physical vulnerability functions for each hazard and class of asset considered. The vulnerability module also can also be used to assign specific vulnerability functions to the exposed elements.

Loss Module

The loss module is used to calculate the potential for losses for user-defined return periods or specific scenarios.

Additional Modules

• Climate change scenarios: Process the extreme events and physical potential impacts based on information from climate change models.
• Rapid on-time loss estimation: Process probable loss estimates based on pre-defined scenario events (for cyclone or earthquake risk).
• Holistic risk evaluation: Process integrated interdisciplinary
risk analysis to generate pre-defined risk indicators.