Based on these studies, and as a result of an underlying need for better information on disaster risk for this type of infrastructure, a Technical Assistance Project (TAP) is now in development in conjunction with the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP) and in coordination with the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Ministries of Education and Health, whose main objective is to build technical capacity among PUCP students and professors for probabilistic risk assessment utilizing the CAPRA software platform,[5] and to execute a pilot project to assess the seismic risk of a portfolio of health and education sector infrastructure in the Lima metropolitan area.

The project consists of estimating probable losses for the infrastructure portfolios of these sectors in Lima metropolitan area based on rigorous calculation of the loss exceedance rate utilizing a probabilistic methodology implemented in the CAPRA software platform.  Estimating these losses with a probabilistic approach calls for the use of sophisticated tools and great in-depth knowledge of seismic hazard and the structural performance of this type of structures in the event of earthquakes (seismic vulnerability). To that end, detailed data is required on the structural characteristics of structures and the local soil conditions in Lima.  The project involves field work and office work with PUCP students and professors to compile data on school and health facilities and process and analyze data utilizing a Geographic Information System (GIS) and CAPRA software platform.  The progress and results are being discussed in workshops and specific meetings with the sectors involved.  The most important challenge of this TAP is to link the results to be obtained by the PUCP team of students and professors during the project with the needs of the sectors in designing, prioritizing, and implementing vulnerability reduction plans for their infrastructure. The results of this study may be also used to design and structure  financial risk management and insurance instruments and mechanisms. Another aim of this study is to propose a standard methodology for estimating probable losses in the public sector.

Approach

Compilation and analysis of data on exposure of educational and health infrastructure in the Lima Metropolitan Area.

Since September 2011, existing data from earlier projects has been reviewed and analyzed.  This data is being compiled in databases that may be used to provide input for risk assessment utilizing the CAPRA software platform and any other risk assessment system.  Since January 2012, advice has been provided by education and health sector specialists for this work for purposes of its integration with and improvement of existing sectorial databases.  By project end, existing analyzed data and that generated under the project is expected to be consolidated in the sectorial databases in collaboration with the IDEP[6] framework, and a report prepared that describes the data compilation methodologies utilized.

Challenge

Estimation of structural vulnerability functions (damage vis-à-vis intensity) for different types of health and education buildings.

The relationship between seismic intensity and structural performance measured in terms of damage or loss is known as a vulnerability function. It has been found that a building’s level of damage is correlated with inter-story deformation resulting from seismic displacement. The greater the relative deformation is, the greater the damage (Bertero et al., 1991; Moehle, 1992; Moehle, 1996; Miranda, 1997; Priestley, 1997; Sozen, 1997).

In Peru, the seismic vulnerability function for INFES 780-97-type educational facilities has been studied by different authors. Álvarez and Quispe (2003) utilized the methodology proposed by FEMA[7] to estimate maximum top-level displacements for different seismic intensities.  Bocanegra and Martínez (2011) used the Miranda (1999) and ATC-40 methods, based on static “pushover” analysis to identify inelastic displacements produced by an earthquake of a given intensity.  These displacements were related to damage and relationships between maximum distortion and estimated damage identified.  The study calculated estimated annual loss values, also known as the technical premium, for educational facilities in two districts in the cities of Arequipa and Ica. However, the study’s scope was not broad enough for conclusions to be drawn at the regional and national level.  Under this project, a vulnerability function for the Lima metropolitan area will be estimated and proposed for future uses.

The vulnerability function will also be estimated utilizing a step-by-step non-linear analysis technique known as Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) (Vamvatsikos and Cornell, 2001). This study will model the non-linear behavior of structures and analyze their response when subjected to previously recorded or simulated seismic movements.  A history of structural response over time will be obtained. With this response, the maximum response in terms of displacements is obtained, which can be correlated with damage.

Estimation of probable losses resulting from seismic hazard risk utilizing the CAPRA software platform

This activity will integrate the results for the seismic hazard calculated by the IGP team under the TAP “Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the national level and for the cities of Arequipa, Lima, and Cusco,” with the exposure databases and vulnerability functions being compiled and developed under this project, to obtain estimates of probable physical losses for the education and health portfolios in the Lima metropolitan area.

Thus far, no study exists that focuses on estimating probable losses for these sectors that would make it possible to define guidelines and take measures for proper financial management of their risks and vulnerability reduction  of their infrastructure.

Methodology

Work will be divided into four phases:

Preliminary work: Bibliographical review, meetings with institutions involved in earlier studies, database compilation and processing, training workshops on CAPRA software platform, training on the use of non-linear analysis tools.

Field work: Preparation of technical sheets, coordination of data compiled, classification, and typology.

Office work: Assignment of vulnerability functions, uploading seismic hazard data to the CAPRA software platform, digitalization and processing of data compiled, classification, typology, determination of vulnerability functions, estimation of probable losses utilizing the CAPRA software platform, and preparation of recommendations for designing vulnerability reduction programs in the infrastructure portfolios studied.

Workshops with sectors: Discussion of the results with sector officials for adjustment of recommendations and to guide the process.

[1] Swiss Development Corporation.
[2] Center for Disaster Studies and Prevention.
[3] http://safehospitals.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=1&lang=spanish
[4] Pan American Health Organization.
[5] One of CAPRA’s main objectives is to create a software platform for modeling of components prior to risk assessment (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) and for probabilistic risk computation based on those inputs.  The key component of the platform is CAPRA-GIS, a geographic information system designed for probabilistic risk assessment (http://ecapra.org/capra-gis)
[6] Spatial Data Infrastructure of Peru (IDEP), National Office on E-Government and Information Technology.
[7] Federal Emergency Management Agency.