Overview

The Central American region is highly vulnerable to a wide variety of natural hazards, which constitutes a major challenge to its sustainable socioeconomic development.  In consequence, in recent decades, risk management policies have evolved to become more proactive, focusing on risk prevention and reduction.

Panama has a history of high magnitude earthquakes that have resulted in great loss of life and property, with impact on the country's growth and economy. A document prepared by the Specialized University of the Americas on the chronology of disasters in Panama from 1900 to 2003 shows that earthquakes occurred the city of David and its surrounding area in 1934, 1945, 1979, and 2003.

Approach

In 2008, a national seismic hazard assessment was completed under the project on earthquake risk reduction in Central America, RESIS II—(NORSAR), which, based on probabilistic modeling, defined different acceleration conditions for the country.  Under the RESIS 1 project, in 2000 a seismic microzoning assessment was developed for the city of David, Panama, since it is one of Panama's cities where seismic hazard is greatest.  The microzoning study defined soil amplification factors through micro tremors and provided initial results on the city's vulnerability.  In general, it showed a high seismic risk for the city of David, resulting mainly from lack of planning and poor use of seismic resistance standards.

Challenge

In defining activities for disaster risk reduction, an assessment must be made of the potential impact on infrastructure of different events and, to that end, better knowledge gained of the hazard and level of exposure of exposed elements, as well as better assessment made of expected loss or damage. The Ministry of Housing and Land Use Planning (MiViOT), aware of the needs for evaluation of maximum probable losses for some health, education, and housing infrastructure, requested support from the World Bank to develop probabilistic seismic risk models for some of portfolios through the use of the CAPRA1 technological platform, and to build institutional capacities for risk assessment and for the design and implementation of vulnerability reduction measures.

In view of the situation described above, a technical assistance project (TAP) is now in execution, whose main goal is to build institutional capacities for probabilistic seismic risk assessment through analysis and evaluation of the health, education, and housing portfolios of the city of David. Under the TAP, activities are being carried out to compile and analyze seismic hazard and local impacts, compile information on health, education, and housing infrastructure, identify vulnerability curves for each existing structure, and assess maximum probable losses resulting from potential seismic events.

One output will be a seismic risk reduction program for David expected to be implemented by the Ministry of Housing and Land Use Planning (MiViOT) in coordination with the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education.

Results

• Compilation and analysis of the seismic hazard and site impacts Several regional studies of seismic hazard have been prepared for Panama with data on the geological and geotechnical characteristics, and micro tremor records for the city of David.    To execute the TAP, soil parameters, seismic hazard status parameters, and transfer functions are being compiled, analyzed, and identified to create an .ame file for modeling using CAPRA.  This activity is being lead by the Institute of Geosciences of Panama.
   
• Identification of exposed elements of the health, education, and housing portfolios In order to characterize health, education, and housing infrastructure, the ministries involved are conducting a thorough survey of data on health centers and schools, and developing a characterization of city blocks with homogeneous housing. This data is now being compiled and organized for modeling with CAPRA.
   
• Establishment of vulnerability functions and their assignment to the exposed elements The country has not prepared representative vulnerability curves for the construction typology of health, education, and government infrastructure. Therefore, research has been programmed on vulnerability functions prepared in other countries that could be used for the seismic risk modeling.  This stage has not yet begun.
   
• Probabilistic seismic risk assessment This activity seeks to integrate, through the CAPRA-GIS platform, knowledge of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to determine probable physical and economic losses for the portfolios analyzed.  This stage has not yet begun.
   
• Seismic risk reduction program for health, education, and housing infrastructure in the city of David

Toward the future

One of the essential outputs of the TAP is a seismic risk reduction program prepared as guidance for the Government of Panama in investment projects required in the short, medium, and long-term to obtain better knowledge, establish prevention and mitigation activities, and identify possible financial instruments for seismic risk reduction. This stage has not yet begun.

The Technical Assistance Project is scheduled to end by May 2012.