Overview 

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, as the country’s geographic and climatic features, coupled with its social and economic environment, make it prone to natural hazards, including floods, cyclones, droughts, landslides, earthquakes. With over a 150 million people and one of the highest population densities in the world, more than 80 percent of the population of Bangladesh is potentially exposed to floods, earthquakes and droughts, and more than 70 percent to cyclones. 

The country encompasses the largest delta in the world, formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers, which flow through Bangladesh and into the Bay of Bengal. The climatic features of Bangladesh are driven by the annual monsoon, a period of time during which approximately 80 percent of annual rainfall occurs. This often leads to major flooding across the country given its low lying terrain. During the transitional pre- and post-monsoon periods, there are also severe local storms and tornadoes. In addition to the monsoon rains, Bangladesh’s coastline is exposed to cyclones, which have caused some of the world’s deadliest human disasters.  

Cyclones and floods have been the most frequent causes of disasters in Bangladesh, resulting in nearly all of the 520,000 disaster-related deaths recorded over the past 40 years. Of this number, approximately 300,000 and 140,000 deaths were caused by two cyclone events alone, in 1970 and in 1991, respectively.  Floods have not caused as many casualties as cyclone events; however, the damage potential of major flood events is the highest of all hazards and the cumulative recorded loss due to flooding is estimated to be US$12 billion over the past 40 years. Droughts are also a common occurrence, affecting millions of people and causing widespread direct and indirect impacts on livelihoods. 

Seismic tremors also occur regularly in the region and historical records show that in the last 150 years, Bangladesh and neighboring states in India have experienced seven major earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above. While Bangladesh can claim accomplishments in flood and cyclone risk management in recent years, the general consensus is that the urban earthquake risk is a threat that is unknown, unplanned for, and increasing due to rapid urbanization.  Bangladesh lies on the seismically active Indian plate, and the nearest major fault line is believed to run less than 60 km from the capital city of Dhaka. Although there is some uncertainty, research suggests that an earthquake of up to magnitude 7.5 is possible. Given these conditions, Dhaka is ranked among the 20 cities in the world most vulnerable to earthquakes.

Challenges

Absolute protection against natural hazards is neither feasible, nor economically justified; however reducing exposure to natural hazards is a necessity. Bangladesh needs to build an environment of disaster and climate resiliency, which would involve a combination of interventions that include "hard" and "soft" engineering solutions, zoning and planning initiatives, and an innovative use of financial instruments to protect assets and shift incentives for investment in resilient forms of economic activity. 

The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) is the lead agency on disaster management in Bangladesh and the country’s strategy is detailed in the National Disaster Management Plan (2010-2015). The Plan has been developed on the basis of the Government of Bangladesh’s (GoB) vision to reduce the vulnerability of the poor by (a) bringing a paradigm shift in disaster management from conventional emergency response and relief to a more comprehensive risk reduction culture and (b) strengthening the capacity of the Bangladesh disaster management system by improving response and recovery mechanisms at all levels.

Over time, the GoB has put into place a response-oriented disaster management infrastructure that was proven successful during Cyclone Sidr in 2007.  During this event, a strong emergency response and early recovery system effectively met the needs of the population at risk. To continue increasing resiliency to adverse natural events, the GoB needs to proactively reduce risk by introducing risk identification and mitigation measures.

Furthermore, with natural disasters creating a vicious cycle of poverty, enhancing citizens’ ability to cope with such events is essential. The high risk of losing assets diminishes incentives to invest in more productive forms of economic activity, keeping vulnerable populations poor and exposed to climate risks. This calls for incentives to diversify sources of income and build assets.

Finally, Bangladesh requires contingency arrangements for disaster risk reduction and/or recovery. The general practice is that a "reserve" category is established in the budget for various contingencies and these funds are used in the aftermath of a disaster. Budget allocations in Bangladesh have typically been insufficient, requiring substantial supplemental donor assistance. Furthermore, funds earmarked for development programs are often used up in disaster response, thus delaying much-needed investments in the creation of social and economic infrastructure. As such, setting up a well-designed risk financing program should be considered.

World Bank Engagement in Bangladesh and CAPRA

The World Bank has been involved in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction in Bangladesh since 1972 and has been actively supporting the GoB in reducing vulnerability to adverse natural events through a series of investments. In recent years, the focus of the World Bank’s support has focused on increasing lending for risk reduction and mitigation by integrating such initiatives into investment programs.

In order to better understand risk management in Bangladesh and integrate risk reduction measures into development planning, CAPRA, a GIS-based information platform may be utilized. CAPRA utilizes probabilistic risk assessment techniques by combining hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data. CAPRA applications consists of a variety of tools such as risk maps, cost-benefit analysis for risk prevention or mitigation, and programs that assist in the design of risk financing strategies.  CAPRA has the potential to be a catalyst in advancing Bangladesh’s Disaster Risk Management (DRM) agenda.  

Moreover, CAPRA would complement one of the key objectives of an ongoing World Bank DRM investment in the country, the Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP). ECRRP has taken an integrated approach to disaster management. As part of building long term preparedness and incorporating appropriate risk reduction strategies, a Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (MRVA) modeling and mapping exercise has been initiated in the investment program.  

MRVA will be mapping all hazard prone areas of Bangladesh, covering geological, hydro-meteorological, and technological hazards. Flood risk maps will be produced using the MIKE 11 river modeling system, the regional Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river models will be updated, cyclone and storm surges will be modeled, and drought, earthquake, and landslide hazard assessments will be carried out. The work will assess the exposure of people, property, infrastructure, and economic activities to the hazards and assess the vulnerabilities of the exposed elements. Together, these assessments will be used to influence sectoral development strategies in understanding institutional, legislative, and organizational systems to be in place for disaster preparedness. 

The synergies and complementarities in CAPRA and MRVA are multi-fold; the extensive data being collected for MRVA would contribute directly to CAPRA’s need for a comprehensive dataset for undertaking a probabilistic assessment. Furthermore, the hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment carried out by MRVA may be validated by the findings of CAPRA. This can then, be put onto CAPRA’s open source interface and integrated with other national and regional initiatives. Finally, CAPRA may have the potential to build upon the MRVA assessment and carry out cost-benefit analysis for public investment, risk prevention, and mitigation analysis and develop strategies for risk financing.